According to the Health Ministry, there have been 478 deaths due to corona in the country in the last 24 hours.
Amidst these statistics, there is news that the Health Minister of India, Dr. Harsh Vardhan will hold a meeting with the Chief Ministers of 11 states on 6 April. On Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi took stock of the situation and it has been decided to leave the Health Ministry team in three states including Maharashtra.
But why is this happening?
Since last September, what has changed so much that the corona cases suddenly start increasing so fast? Now the corona vaccine has also come, in such a case that matters should happen, then why is this happening? What are the reasons behind this?
Reason 1: Corona survivors have a large population
Dr. Shahid Jamil is a well-known virologist of the country. “There will be an increase in the number of Covid 19 patients only when a large population has not had Covid 19. In the sero survey conducted in the country so far, we have seen that a large population still survived the Covid 19 epidemic, Those who were not in the grip of infection. In Mumbai private apartment dwellers are seeing more cases now. There are more people getting admitted in private hospitals, beds are still empty in government hospitals. It tells That there are still enough population in India, which could have been in danger. Those people are coming more in the grip of second wave of Corona. ”
Jugal Kishore Sero, Head Doctor of Community Medicine at Safdarjung Hospital, explains this through the survey. He says, “In the places where the survey was done, the statistics in each area was different. It means that 50 percent of the people were cured, then some 20 percent, and 30 percent somewhere. In the villages, it is a little bit And it was less. To save people, the government kept them in the house, imposed restrictions on the exit. But escaping till now does not mean that there will be no further Covid 19. Infection control will happen when antibodies are made inside everyone. Herd immunity Only works when the antibodies develop within 60-70% and the remaining 40-30% of the people stay in their own place. But when the remaining 40-30% of the people travel, they start to interact with the people. , Then nothing can be done of herd immunity. The sero survey was correct, but the cause is due to those 40-30 percent people
Second reason: people should not be cautious
Covid 19 Appropriate Behavior means repeatedly washing hands at certain intervals, maintaining a distance of two yards and wearing a mask. After getting the vaccine, people have not got the vaccine or not installed, but they all have agreed that now there is no need to wear masks, distance of two gazes, and wash hands frequently.
Markets have opened, elections are being held in five states, Kumbh Mela is going on, people have started going to jobs. It is clear from the pictures that are coming from the election-bound states that people are no longer used to taking precautions against Covid 19. Leaders are also seen to be involved in it. The virus looks aggressive again due to this.
Doctor Jugal Kishore explains the same thing in other words. he said, “The increase in the number of patients in this type of disease depends on two things –
1. In the midst of this disease, how does the common man change his behavior for protection and
2. How does the behavior of viruses change.
People can change their behavior. In the beginning people had made some changes, started wearing masks, reduced their exit from homes, started washing their hands. But now all that is left.
The third reason: the role of mutants in fast-growing cases
According to Dr. Jugal, another reason for the spread of the virus is the change in the behavior of the virus. The changes in the virus, which are being called mutants, are enabling them to spread quickly.
Even if a big study has not been done about this, but some small genomic studies have been done, which shows that the UK strain and South Africa strain have arrived in India. Apart from these, another mutation has also been found in the sample of Maharashtra, on which a study is to be done.
The government has also admitted itself that out of all the cases coming out of Punjab, mutant viruses are also there. In the UK, it has been seen that the variants there spread the infection more quickly.
The fourth reason: R number is increasing
Dr. T. Jacob is a retired professor of virology at John Christian Medical College Vellore. They say that there is a lot of difference between the first wave of corona and the second wave, which can be seen clearly. Corona cases in the first wave increased at a slow rate week after week despite the lockdown and people’s return home.
But look at the graph of this time, the cases are growing very fast. This means that the rate of infection, also known as R number, has increased rapidly.
The R number refers to the reproductive number of the virus. According to Dr. John, “During the first wave it was between R numbers 2 to 3. But in the second wave it has been between 3 to 4. This is indicative of the fact that the virus of the second wave was from the virus of the previous year. Compared to different.
He adds, “Based on the data of the first wave of Corona, an estimate is being made that 60 per cent of the people in that wave had the disease and 40 per cent were left. Since the same 40 per cent is now in the second wave The corona is happening, so the cases are increasing rapidly, the peak will also be quick and when the graph is down, it will be so fast. It is being estimated right now. ”
But can it be said on this basis that new cases are not cases of re-infection? And only the survivors are getting corona? On this, Doctor John says that a detailed study is needed about this. Only then can it be said with certainty.
Change in vaccination strategy
To deal with this, says Dr. Jamil, the Government of India will have to change the vaccination strategy. “Only 4.8 percent of the population in India has got the first dose of vaccine and 0.7 percent of the population has got the second dose. India is still far behind its target. That is why the effect of vaccine in India is not visible on the population. ”
He gives an example of Israel in support of this. In Israel, between 75 and 80 percent of people aged 65 and over have received the Corona vaccine. Because of this, whether there is a case of hospitalization among people of that age or a serious infection, such cases are rarely seen.
Therefore, they believe that the government will have to change the strategy of vaccination. “What is happening in Maharashtra is not happening in Nagaland. In Maharashtra, only those above 45 years of age will not get any good by applying the vaccine. In Maharashtra and Punjab, where the cases are increasing, there will be vaccination for everyone. Should be opened. ” However, he says that for this, the supply will also have to be seen and how will it be felt, a strategy has to be made for this as well.
But should India stop giving vaccines to other countries?
On this, Dr. Jugal says, this decision has to be made by the Central Government. But on the matter of opening it to all the people, they say that for those above 45 years of age, the Indian government has not been able to meet its target, then there can be some difficulties on opening it for everyone. All the powerful people can get it done first and leave the needy behind. Therefore, targeting according to age is more right.
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